Excellence does not come from believing in excellence, but from constant change, challenge, and improvement.

― Jeffrey Fry

mediocritydemotivatorEveryone wants his or her work or work they pay for to be high quality. The rub comes when you start to pay for the quality you want. Everyone seems to want high quality for free, and too often believes that low cost quality is a real thing. Time and time again it becomes crystal clear that high quality is extremely expensive to obtain. Quality is full of tedious detail oriented work that is very expensive to conduct. More importantly when quality is aggressively pursued, it will expose problems that need to be solved to reach quality. For quality to be achieved these problems must be addressed and rectified. This ends up being the rub, as people often need to stop adding capability or producing results, and focus on fixing the problems. People, customer and those paying for things tend to not want to pay for fixing problems, which is necessary for quality. As a result, it’s quite tempting to not look so hard at quality and simply do more superficial work where quality is largely asserted by fiat or authority.

Trouble cannot be avoided, you either go looking for it or it will come looking for you.

― Constance Friday

imgresThe entirety of this issue is manifested in the conduct of verification and validation in modeling and simulation. Doing verification and validation is a means of high quality work for modeling and simulation. Like other forms of quality work, it can be done well engaging in details and running problems to ground. Thus V&V is expensive and time consuming. These quality measures take time and effort away from results, and worse yet produce doubt in the results. As a consequence the quality mindset and efforts need to have significant focus and commitment, or they will fall by the wayside. For many customers the results are all that matters, they aren’t willing to pay for more. This becomes particularly true if those doing the work are willing to assert quality without doing the work to actually assure it. In other words the customer will take work that is asserted to be high quality based on the word of those doing the work. If those doing the work are trying to do this on the cheap, we produce low or indeterminate quality work, sold as high quality work masking the actual costs.

The reality is that we do have that problem. Work of unknown quality is being asserted as high quality without the evidence of the high quality ever being produced. Generally the evidence is simply the authority of a “trusted” code user.

imgres-2The largest part of the issue is the confluence of two terrible trends: increasingly naïve customers for modeling and simulation and decreasing commitment for paying for modeling and simulation quality. Part of this comes from customers who believe in modeling and simulation, which is a good thing. The “quality on the cheap” simulations create a false sense of security because it provides them financial resources. Basically we have customers who increasingly have no ability to tell the difference between low and high quality work. The work’s quality is completely dependent upon those doing the work. This is dangerous in the extreme. This is especially dangerous when the modeling and simulation work is not emphasizing quality or paying for its expensive acquisition. We have become too comfortable with the tempting quick and dirty quality. The (color) viewgraph norm that used to be the quality standard for computational work that had faded in use is making a come back. A viewgraph norm version of quality is orders of magnitude cheaper than detailed quantitative work needed to accumulate evidence. Many customers are perfectly happy with the viewgraph norm and naïvely accept results that simply look good and asserted as high quality.

Instead of avoiding criticisms, make criticisms work for you.

― Aniekee Tochukwu Ezekiel

ppt3.pngPerhaps an even bigger issue is the misguided notion that the pursuit of high quality won’t derail plans. We have gotten into the habit of accepting highly delusional plans for developing capability that do not factor in the cost of quality. We have allowed ourselves to bullshit the customer to believing that quality is simple to achieve. Instead the pursuit of quality will uncover issues that must be dealt with and ultimately change schedules. We can take the practice of verification as an object lesson in how this works out. If done properly verification will uncover numerous and subtle errors in codes such as bugs, incorrect implementations, boundary conditions, or error accumulation mechanisms. Sometimes the issues uncovered are deeply mysterious and solving them requires great effort. Sometimes the problems exposed require research with uncertain or indeterminate outcomes. Other times the issues overthrow basic presumptions about your capability that require significant corrections in large-scale objectives. We increasingly live in a world that cannot tolerate these realities. The current belief is that we can apply project management to the work, and produce high quality results that ignore all of this.

2D MHD B_60The way that the trip down to “quality hell” starts is the impact of digging into quality. Most customers are paying for capability rather than quality. When we allow quick and dirty means of assuring quality to be used, the door is open for the illusion of quality. For the most part the verification and validation done by most scientists and engineers is the quick, dirty and incomplete variety. We see the use of eyeball or viewgraph norm pervasively in comparing results in both verification and validation. We see no real attempt to grapple with the uncertainties in calculations or measurements to put comparisons in quantitative context. Usually we see people create graphics that have the illusion of good results, and use authority to dictate that these results indicate mastery and quality. For the most part the scientific and engineering community simply gives in to the authoritative claims despite a lack of evidence. The deeper issue with the quick and dirty verification is the mindset of those conducting it; they are working from the presumption that the code is correct instead of assuming there are problems, and collecting evidence to disprove this.

The core issue in quality is the accumulation of evidence pro and con with the courage to accept what that evidence shows. As usual, the greater the evidence the better the work is. Graphical work is useful and powerful only when it is backed up by quantitative work. The dag006quantitative work is the remedy for the qualitative, eyeball, viewgraph, and color video metric so often used today. Deep quantitative studies show the sort of evidence that cannot be ignored. If the results are good, the evidence of quality is strong. If a problem is found, the need for remedy is equally strong. In validation or verification the creation of an error bar goes a long way to putting any quality discussion in context. The lack of an error bar casts any result adrift and lacking in context. A secondary issue would be the incomplete work where full error bars are not pursued, or results that are not favorable are not pursued or worse yet, suppressed.

One key aspect of verification testing is the high degree of technical knowledge needed to conduct it in a fully professional and complete manner. The gap between quick and dirty verification using plot overlays, and various forms of the viewgraph norm, and fully well executed quantitative verification is vast. Orders of magnitude level of effort stands between the quick check producing a plot overlay and a fully quantitative study including rates of convergence. The plot overlay can be produced without consideration for deep fields of technical knowledge that verification taps into. Many of the code development communities at our leading institutions are quite accepting of the quick and dirty approach as adequate. These communities produce little or no push back and the people paying for the code development are too naïve to know the difference. The quick and dirty approach has the virtue of providing a basic qualitative check on the code and is quite capable of unveiling catastrophic problems in the code. One has checked the ability of the code to get some semblance of a solution to a problem with an analytical solution. The subtle issues that must be solved for high quality have lots of room to hide, and sometimes hide for decades.

At the same time the full benefit of the analytical solution and verification is clouded by the lack of quantitative rigor. Moreover the full benefit of verification is lost in the sloppy standard of acceptance for quick and dirty verification. Serious bugs in a code can go completely unnoticed where the full quantitative approach would unmask the bugs for removal by the development teams. If acceptance standards are weak, the quick and dirty approach is accepted as giving the appearance of verification in the absence of its professional level of practice. Validation practices tap into similar differences in execution cost and sophistication in terms of effort and cost.

Nothing in this world is harder than speaking the truth, nothing easier than flattery.

― Fyodor Dostoyevsky

What really happens when the feedback from our customers does not accept the steps necessary for quality? We are starting to see this unfold around us. The forces behind “imagesalternative facts” are driven by this lack of willingness to deal with reality. Why deal with truth and the reality of real problems when we can just define them away with more convenient facts. In today’s world we are seeing a rise of lies, bullshit and delusion all around us. As a result, we are systematically over-promising and under-delivering on our work. We over-promise to get the money, and then under-deliver because of the realities of doing work one cannot get maximum capability with maximum quality for discount prices. Increasingly bullshit (propaganda) fills in the space between what we promise and what we deliver. Pairing with this deep dysfunction is a systematic failure of peer review within programs. Peer review has been installed as backs stop again the tendencies outlined above. The problem is that too often peer review does not have a free reign. Too often with have conflicts of interest, or control that provide an explicit message that the peer review had better be positive, or else.

imgres-1We bring in external peer reviews filled with experts who have the mantle of legitimacy. The problem is that these experts are hired or drafted by the organizations being reviewed. Being too honest or frank in a peer review is the quickest route to losing that gig and the professional kudos that goes along with it. One bad or negative review will assure that the reviewer is never invited back. I’ve seen it over and over again. Anyone who provides an honest critique is never seen again. A big part of the issue is that the reviews are viewed as pass-fail tests and problems uncovered are dealt with punitively. Internal peer reviews are even worse. Again any negative review is met with distain. The person having the audacity and stupidity to be critical is punished. This punishment is meted out with the clear message, “only positive reviews are tolerated.” Positive reviews are thus mandated by threat and retribution. We have created the recipe for systemic failure.

peerreviewPutting the blame on systematic wishful thinking is far too kind. High quality for a discount price is wishful thinking at best. If the drivers for this weren’t naïve customers and dishonest programs, it might be forgivable. The problem is that everyone who is competent knows better. The real key to seeing where we are going is the peer review issue. By squashing negative peer review, the truth is exposed. Those doing all this substandard work know the work is poor, and simply want a system that does not expose the truth. We have created a system with rewards and punishments that allows this. Reward is all monetary, and very little positive happens based on quality. We can assert excellence without doing the hard things necessary to achieve it. As long as we allow people to simply declare their excellence without producing evidence of said excellence quality will languish.

Do Not Lie to Yourself

We have to be honest about what we want and take risks rather than lie to ourselves and make excuses to stay in our comfort zone.

― Roy T. Bennett